Chinese and Russian submarines recently conducted a joint patrol, marking a significant step in the evolving partnership between the two nations. The exercise, which involved a Russian submarine named Volkhov and a Chinese submarine, aimed to send a clear warning to the United States regarding the potential ramifications of a China-Russia alliance.
Lyle Goldstein, director of the Asia Program at the Defense Priorities think tank in Washington, commented on the patrol, stating, “I’d say this is simply an effort at deterrence.” He noted that while a simultaneous war with the West seems unlikely, the joint exercise serves to create an impression of a unified front.
Beijing and Moscow have promoted this patrol as a landmark in their military collaboration. A military expert in China described it as an indicator of significant strategic mutual trust, highlighting the technical expertise required for submarines to remain in contact during the operation. The patrol not only featured the two submarines but also included two Russian surface vessels: the corvette Gromkiy and a submarine rescue ship. They navigated through the East China Sea and Sea of Japan in August, following a joint anti-submarine exercise earlier that month.
Both submarines were Kilo-class vessels, a design originating from the 1970s known for its quiet operation. Goldstein pointed out this choice in submarines as logical due to both countries’ similar capabilities, given that China had imported this class from Russia.
Despite this cooperation, notable absences were observed, specifically the exclusion of nuclear-powered submarines from the exercise. Goldstein suggests this may stem from concerns about sharing advanced capabilities with an ally that could potentially become a rival in the future. He also remarked that while China and Russia share a historical relationship, their collaboration is not as seamless as that of NATO allies, minimizing the potential for operational integration.
This submarine patrol is part of a series of military collaborations between China and Russia, which began with sporadic bomber patrols in 2019 and has since included annual joint surface ship patrols and various land exercises. As Goldstein noted, the developments are consistent and often expand into new technological or geographical dimensions.
Furthermore, the patrol may serve as a counter to the AUKUS pact, an agreement between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States regarding nuclear submarine acquisition. Chinese strategists are reportedly monitoring AUKUS closely, considering enhanced cooperation with Russia in undersea warfare as a logical response.
The future of the China-Russia relationship hinges on whether their nuclear submarines will operate together, as this would indicate deeper military integration and potentially more advanced technological collaboration. However, Goldstein cautions against overreacting to these joint exercises, suggesting that increased U.S. military deployments might provoke a counter-reaction from China and Russia.
Ultimately, the depth of their alliance remains uncertain. Goldstein states, “Both sides are somewhat chastened by the history of the Sino-Soviet dispute,” acknowledging that while their interests may align at times, historical tensions serve as a reminder of the complexities within their relationship.
