Ten years ago, the idea that artificial intelligence (AI) might surpass human-level intelligence by the year 2029 was met with skepticism in Washington. However, a recent hearing by the House Oversight Committee titled “[Shaping Tomorrow: The Future of Artificial Intelligence](https://oversight.house.gov/hearing/shaping-tomorrow-the-future-of-artificial-intelligence/)” demonstrated a significant shift in perspective regarding AI advancements, particularly concerning China’s ambitions in this field and its threats toward Taiwan.
During the hearing, Samuel Hammond, chief economist at the [Foundation for American Innovation](https://www.inc.com/nancy-scola/foundation-american-innovation-tech-right/91235091), referenced predictions made by Ray Kurzweil, an inventor and current Google executive. Hammond stated, “Current trend lines suggest” Kurzweil’s assertion of achieving human-level AI by 2029 “was dead on.” This projection, which has intrigued Silicon Valley for over two decades, is not unanimously supported. Critics like Meta’s [Yann LeCun](https://aibusiness.com/responsible-ai/lecun-debunks-agi-hype-says-it-is-decades-away) and Google Brain founder [Andrew Ng](https://www.businessinsider.com/google-brain-founder-andrew-ng-agi-is-overhyped-yc-2025-7) caution against such optimism. Conversely, supporters of the 2029 timeline include [Elon Musk](https://www.ft.com/content/027b133f-f7e3-459d-95bf-8afd815ae23d) and [Demis Hassabis](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/artificial-intelligence-google-deepmind-ceo-demis-hassabis-60-minutes-transcript/), the creator of Google DeepMind, along with increasing attention from [state-run Chinese media](https://xinwen.bjd.com.cn/content/s6616852ce4b02feb3a2fa714.html).
The tone of the hearing was decidedly grave, particularly when discussing the AI competition with China. Analysts noted that China has committed to aggressive AI objectives, implying a potential arrival of AGI within four years and indicating a more threatening posture toward Taiwan. Hammond warned that a Chinese takeover of Taiwan could lead to a “global depression,” as Beijing would then control the flow of advanced computer chips produced on the island. He reflected sentiments expressed by former Biden Commerce Secretary [Gina Raimondo](https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/commerce-secretary-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-would-cut-off-chips-cause-deep-and-immediate-recession-in-us/) and others regarding the strategic significance of Taiwan’s chips, particularly those manufactured by TSMC, in the global economy, especially in an AI-driven era.
Hammond emphasized the peril of the U.S. losing its technological edge by explaining the transition of industries into sectors vulnerable to AI disruption, such as services and entertainment. He suggested a renewed domestic focus on chip manufacturing through initiatives like a “CHIPS Act 2.0,” referencing the bipartisan [2022 law](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4346) that allocated [approximately $52 billion](https://www.nist.gov/system/files/documents/2024/04/22/Fact%20Sheet%20-%20Federal%20Incentives-updated-508C.pdf) in incentives for U.S. chip production. Hammond also called for stronger measures to prevent advanced chips from reaching China, citing the proposed [GAIN Act](https://www.congress.gov/amendment/119th-congress/senate-amendment/3505/text), which would prioritize U.S. companies in chip sales, although its future remains uncertain in pending legislation.
Moreover, the hearing did not address recent actions by the Trump administration that allowed chipmaker Nvidia to sell advanced AI-related chips to China or attempts to undermine the GAIN Act. Overall, there is concern that a Chinese acquisition of Taiwan would afford China a lasting advantage in AI development and deployment, creating a scenario where a global depression might be a price they are willing to pay for stronger geopolitical positioning.
