In the last six years, only SpaceX and the United Launch Alliance have been eligible to launch U.S. military satellites. Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck has advocated for new providers to have opportunities to compete for these missions. The Space Force announced that the next phase of its strategy would reserve missions for new providers, with 30 launches from 2025 to 2034 in Lane 1. Smaller companies have ambitions to compete for the more restrictive Lane 2 contracts, but they are targeting Lane 1 missions for now.
Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket was closest to qualifying for Lane 1 contracts, but it is now targeting mid-2025 for its debut. Other companies working on medium-lift launch vehicles include ABL Space Systems, Firefly Aerospace, Northrop Grumman, and Relativity Space. Despite the Space Force creating opportunities for emerging launch vehicles, delays in development may mean initial contracts still go to SpaceX and ULA incuments, with a possibility of Blue Origin in Lane 2.
Space Force Chief Gen. Chance Saltzman emphasized the importance of on-ramp opportunities for companies at different stages of development. The Space Force should focus on fostering competition to allow new companies to emerge and compete with SpaceX, which holds a dominant position in the U.S. launch market. SpaceX’s rise in the military launch market followed concerns about reliance on the Russian-made RD-180 engine used by ULA. SpaceX, ULA, Blue Origin, and Northrop Grumman have all played roles in reshaping the national security space launch market.
