Russia has intensified its military operations in the Kursk region, successfully reducing Ukraine’s control over territory that has been held by Kyiv since their significant incursion in August 2022. Reports from military bloggers indicate that this shift in power dynamics has been particularly evident in recent days.
Despite facing losses along the front line for more than a year, Ukraine has attempted to maintain control over parts of the Kursk region as a potential bargaining chip in future peace negotiations with Moscow. According to DeepState, an online battlefield tracker affiliated with the Ukrainian army, Russian forces breached Ukrainian defenses south of the company-held town of Sudzha on March 6, 2023.
Recent maps traced by DeepState indicate that Ukraine has lost at least partial control over a crucial road leading towards Sudzha, with Ukrainian forces reportedly retreating from areas to the west of the village of Sverdlikovo. The Ukrainian news outlet Ukrainska Pravda reported that Russian forces are actively working to disrupt supply routes, while Ukrainian officials are striving to “stabilize the situation,” according to sources within military units.
Defense analyst Yan Matveyev highlighted that Russian troops are constricting the Ukrainian army from both the west and east, resulting in a precariously narrow corridor for potential troop withdrawals. He noted that this corridor has dwindled to about 12-13 kilometers (approximately 7 to 8 miles), rendering safe retreat increasingly difficult.
Matveyev emphasized that Ukrainian command faces a critical decision: either withdraw from the Kursk region to preserve their forces or hold their position at the risk of losing everything. Sergiy Sternenko, a well-known Ukrainian activist, remarked on the deteriorating logistics situation in the Kursk region, labeling it as “already critical.” He stated that logistics routes to Sudzha are now under comprehensive enemy control.
Russian military correspondent Alexander Kots also noted the dire circumstances, asserting that it is too late for Ukraine to withdraw its forces without significant casualties and that they are now unable to effectively supply their troops in the area.
