Russia-Ukraine War: Leaked Military Documents Uncover ‘Worst-Case Scenario’

Leaked German military documents have outlined potential worst-case scenarios of Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Obtained by German newspaper Bild, the highly-classified documents detail a situation where Moscow wins in Ukraine then goes to war with NATO. Russia could reportedly attack from its most westerly territory, putting pressure on its border with Poland and building up troops in Belarus. The scenario, involving around 200,000 new Russian recruits, would begin in February 2024, and NATO is forecast to respond by deploying troops to Eastern Europe.
Apart from using weapons from its arsenal, Russia would use severe cyberattacks on NATO in the “doomsday” scenario. The goal would be to incite internal chaos in the Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia to destabilize them. Moscow could also bombard its small enclave of Kaliningrad with propaganda of an imminent attack by NATO forces to conquer the nearby Polish-Lithuanian corridor of the Suwałki Gap. The peak of the war could happen in early 2025, or in the middle of the transition of power in the US government following the presidential election in November 2024.
A spokesperson for the German defense ministry said the “exercise scenario” is common military planning, and considering different scenarios, even if they are extremely unlikely, is part of everyday military business, especially in training. The Institute for the Study of War also commented on the leaked documents, saying the timeline was improbable but Russia could indeed push as far as the borders of NATO countries if Western support continues to dwindle.