For the U.S. Navy to achieve its proposed plan to expand its fleet of battle force ships, an estimated budget of **$40.1 billion** in shipbuilding is required annually through **2054**, amounting to over **$1 trillion**. This analysis was released by the **Congressional Budget Office (CBO)**.
The Navy aims to increase its fleet from the current **295** ships to **381** over the next **30 years** in response to rising global threats. However, the fleet size is projected to decrease to **283 ships** by **2027**, as the Navy plans to retire **13 ships** without commissioning an equal number.
The CBO noted that the velocity of shipbuilding will be quickest in the early **2030s** to meet the Navy’s goal. The funding needed will need to be **46% higher** than the average annual funding of the past five years. By **2054**, the Navy’s total yearly budget would need to reach approximately **$340 billion**, which is **one-third more** than the current budget of **$255 billion**. Of this increase, around **$40 billion** would be allocated for continued shipbuilding, and **$45 billion** would cover operating and maintenance costs, as well as weapons purchases.
The CBO’s estimates are notably **8% to 16% higher** than the Navy’s projections, reflecting concerns over construction delays and rising complexity in ship designs. The office has pointed out that some estimates from the Navy appear to be unrealistically low, which contributes to their increased cost projections.
Comparatively, the proposed shipbuilding costs are described as high when viewed against recent funding levels and historical standards, with the last decade showing a notable increase in shipbuilding funding. Since **2015**, Congress has appropriated, on average, **$2.5 billion** more annually for shipbuilding than was initially requested by the President, highlighting concerns that the fleet is too small to fulfill its missions.
To realize the proposed fleet expansion, U.S. shipyards would need to significantly enhance their productivity, as reported by the CBO. Current conditions in Navy shipbuilding have been characterized as being in “a terrible state,” which has reached the worst status seen in **25 years**, according to **Eric Labs**, a naval analyst at the CBO.
The shipbuilding industry faces challenges including cost overruns and labor shortages, leading to significant delays in the production of some ships. An example of this is the **Nimitz-class aircraft carrier** USS George Washington, which began its midlife refueling in **August 2017**. The refueling, usually taking four years, was completed nearly **six years later**, in **May 2023**.
Following substantial inspections and certifications, the USS George Washington arrived in **Yokosuka, Japan** in **November 2023**, upon which it became the U.S.’s only forward-deployed aircraft carrier. Under the new proposal, the construction rate for aircraft carriers would remain steady, but the tonnage for submarines, surface combatants, and amphibious warfare ships is projected to be **50% higher** on average between **2030** and **2054**.
**Nikki Wentling** is the author of this report, specializing in disinformation, extremism, and military community issues for **Military Times**.
