**Location and Context**
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Satellite images show a nearly complete airstrip being built on Abd al-Kuri Island, a remote island in Yemen, as of January 7, 2024. The region is known for its ongoing conflict, which has the potential to reignite and exacerbate the war involving local factions and external powers.
**Strategic Importance**
The airstrip, positioned near the Gulf of Aden at the mouth of the Indian Ocean, is considered strategically significant for potential military operations aimed at patrolling the waterway. The Gulf and Red Sea serve as vital transportation routes for cargo and energy shipments to Europe. Attacks by Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have led to a dramatic reduction in commercial shipping traffic in this important region.
**Construction and Control**
The airstrip is likely constructed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has a history of expanding its military presence in the area and supporting the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis. Satellite images reveal a north-south runway measuring approximately 1.5 miles in length and 150 feet wide. It is designed to accommodate smaller aircraft but may not support larger commercial jets.
**Regional Developments**
The Houthis, attempting to link their military operations to external conflicts, have recently intensified their attacks against Israel and U.S. naval forces. Experts express concerns about potential escalations, particularly with the imminent inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump on January 20, 2024, and his approach to the Houthi insurgency.
**Emerging Threats**
A miscalculation in the ongoing conflict could lead to violence resuming at a larger scale, especially with experts warning that the Houthis benefit from prolonged conflict. They view their fight, marked by slogans against the United States and Israel, as a struggle for dominance.
**Infrastructure and Aviation Operations**
The airstrip’s construction reflects a broader pattern of military infrastructure expansion in Yemen, including other airports in the region. Abd al-Kuri is part of the Socotra archipelago, located 250 miles from mainland Yemen, and has been governed by the Southern Transitional Council, which favors regional autonomy.
**International Stakes and Commentary**
The UAE claims its presence in the region is humanitarian, aimed at aiding local populations. However, the Houthi leadership condemns these developments as violations of Yemen’s sovereignty. Additionally, surveillance capabilities from the airstrip could prove critical in interdicting arms smuggling from Iran to the Houthis.
**U.S. Military Involvement**
Recent military actions by the U.S. and its partners have targeted Houthi forces over 260 times, which reflects ongoing tensions and military dynamics in the region. Consequently, U.S. strategic decisions in the wake of a new presidential administration could further influence the fragile stability in Yemen and surrounding areas.
**Future Prospects**
Despite potential offers of ceasefire tied to unrelated conflicts, experts predict that the overall situation in Yemen is likely to remain volatile, as armed confrontations and regional disputes continue to shape the nation’s future.