The U.S. Air Force has announced revised cost estimates for the Sentinel ground-based strategic deterrent program, but it must not change the plan to modernize the nation’s aging force of 1970s-era Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles. The U.S. has maintained a credible nuclear triad since the Cold War, and modernization is a key component of that effort.
The ICBM leg of the triad consists of 450 individual U.S.-based missile sites, with 400 on alert at any given time, complicating an adversary’s decision-making and guarding against aggressors with small nuclear weapons inventories. The Minuteman III system was fielded in the early 1970s and is overdue for a reset. Threats like advanced missile defenses and cyberattacks have changed the attributes required for an effective ICBM force.
As a former commander of Strategic Command, Adm. Charles Richard, explained that without modernization, the U.S. deterrent force will no longer be credible. The Sentinel program aims to acquire new missiles, silos, command-and-control and launch facilities, but poor physical condition of existing Minuteman III silos is a cost driver.
The Sentinel program’s unit acquisition cost is increasing from $118 million to $162 million, but is a tremendous value considering it will be in service until 2075. Budgets are tight, but the program should not be thought of as “unaffordable,” given the stakes.
Going forward, Sentinel must remain on track, and there must be no capability gaps as the current ICBMs reach the end of their lives. The only thing more costly than sustaining a modern strategic deterrent against nuclear attacks is not having one at all.
