A startling German intelligence report claims that Russia may launch an attack on a NATO member state by 2026. The classified report, seen by Business Insider, analyzed Moscow’s increasing military activities, including troop movements and missile deployments in the west of the country, indicating preparation for a major conflict beyond the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The ongoing expansion of Russian arms production could allow the nation to double its military strength over the next five years, especially in conventional weapons. In June 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced sending nuclear arms to ally Belarus, fueling concerns about escalation of conflict.
Concerns about Russia attacking a NATO member grew earlier this year, with leaked German military documents detailing a potential scenario where Moscow wins in Ukraine and then goes to war with a NATO ally. While NATO acknowledges Russia’s growing military capabilities are alarming, they do not necessarily believe it will lead to war. US intelligence services have also dismissed speculations of a Russian attack on NATO in the “mid-term perspective,” estimating it would take Moscow five to eight years to rebuild its military strength following its significant losses in Ukraine.
NATO continues to invest in bolstering defense capabilities, including ordering over 200,000 155-millimeter artillery shells for $1.2 billion, despite downplaying rumors of a potential Russian attack on a member state.
