On October 16, 2023, Frank Kendall, the outgoing Air Force Secretary, suggested that under a potential Trump administration, the Air Force might consider advancing a successor to the F-35 instead of investing in the expensive Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) platform to maintain air superiority. He presented his views during a Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) event in Washington, where he unveiled a report outlining the future of the Air Force over the next 25 years.
Kendall authored the report titled “The Department of the Air Force in 2050,” which serves as a farewell message during the final days of his leadership. In this report, he warned of future threats the department may encounter. He stated, “The [Air Force and Space Force] missions don’t fundamentally change [by then], but both services need to go through a transformation” by 2050.
The report emphasizes the importance of procuring and maintaining the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile and B-21 Raider stealth bomber as key components of the country’s nuclear triad. Kendall highlighted the necessity for a shift towards standoff capabilities and the development of survivable stand-in capabilities, including NGAD drone wingmen, referred to as collaborative combat aircraft (CCA), and a next-generation refueling tanker.
In discussing the Space Force, Kendall indicated that while its mission would remain unchanged, there would be a need for expansion, new architectures, and tactics. He noted the expected increase in on-orbit satellites and personnel, projecting a significant rise from the current 10,000 guardians in the Space Force by 2050.
Kendall identified China as the primary “pacing challenge” for the U.S. and its allies, warning that it will likely continue its military advancements, challenging the U.S. globally. He also acknowledged Russia as a serious threat, though its economic vulnerabilities may limit its military capabilities. However, he cautioned that unpredictable events, such as technological breakthroughs or geopolitical incidents, could drastically alter the security landscape in the coming years.
Kendall outlined several options for the Air Force’s future fighter fleet, emphasizing the need to modernize in order to maintain air superiority. The service had initially planned to pursue NGAD as a sixth-generation system alongside CCAs to replace the aging F-22 Raptor. However, Kendall revealed that an additional $20 billion would be needed for NGAD’s research and development, making the projected costs three times those of the F-35, thereby limiting the number of fighters the Air Force could procure.
Kendall noted that he would defer the decision on the NGAD program to the next administration. He acknowledged the potential value of pursuing NGAD but stated a lack of budgetary flexibility required prioritizing other necessities. As alternatives, Kendall proposed pursuing either a less expensive multi-role aircraft as an F-35 successor or enhancing long-range strike capabilities, including the development of long-range cruise missiles.
He also expressed caution towards the idea, promoted by some, including Trump adviser Elon Musk, to abandon traditional crewed fighters in favor of a full drone-based fleet. He emphasized that the transition from a pilot-centric Air Force would require a significant cultural shift.
Regarding the Space Force, Kendall highlighted the need for growth and timely responses to increasing aggression from China and Russia. While the report does not foresee major changes to its mission, it advocates for increased capabilities in counterspace operations, surveillance, targeting, and automation of space domain awareness systems.
Overall, Kendall’s report outlines a vision for the Air Force and Space Force that emphasizes modernization, adaptation to emerging threats, and transformative growth strategies for the future.