The F-35 program, which is centered on international cooperation and trust, might face significant challenges due to President Donald Trump’s controversial foreign policy statements, such as threats to forsake or annex NATO allies. Experts and former defense officials express concern that these actions could destabilize the program, as both Germany and Canada are among the nations that operate the fifth-generation fighter jet and depend on U.S. supplies and software upgrades.
Former defense officials highlight that if the territorial integrity of nations like Canada and Denmark is questioned, it is unlikely these countries will remain committed to the F-35 program. The F-35 is more than just a combat aircraft; its effectiveness relies on seamless data sharing. With wavering confidence in U.S. alliances, some nations that have structured their defense strategies around the F-35 are now reconsidering their dependence on it.
Currently, no nation operating the F-35 is expected to abandon the fleet immediately. However, Germany might reassess its order for 35 F-35As intended to accommodate U.S. nuclear weapons if American forces withdraw from the country. Similarly, reports suggest that Canada may modify its orders. Richard Aboulafia, managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory, notes that additional F-35 purchases by NATO countries may decrease if current trends continue.
Policymakers in Europe, including officials from Germany and the U.K., may look to invest in alternative European defense programs. For example, the U.K. could redirect some funds from its planned acquisition of 138 F-35 jets into Eurofighter programs. This shift may lead to a mixed fleet of aircraft and less reliance on the United States.
Despite these tensions, some European nations reaffirm their support for the F-35 program, emphasizing the importance of bilateral defense relationships. The Netherlands’ Minister of Defence, Ruben Brekelmans, stressed the need for operational continuity in the F-35 program, asserting confidence in the U.S. as a reliable partner.
Rumors have surfaced about a supposed “kill switch” for the F-35, which could ground the aircraft at U.S. discretion. In response, Lockheed Martin has clarified that there is no evidence of such a feature and emphasized the F-35’s operational independence, most recently reaffirmed through a Swiss government press release.
Analysts suggest that the broader implications of cutting ties with the F-35 could prove detrimental not only to allied aircraft capabilities but also to the American aerospace industry, which is heavily integrated with European supply chains. Analysts remain optimistic about the program’s near-term stability, citing the absence of viable alternative fifth-generation fighters and the significant investments made by European nations in the F-35.
Ultimately, though, Aboulafia warns that ongoing U.S. actions could create a lasting mistrust in European nations, potentially leading them to favor less advanced aircraft over F-35s if it grants them greater independence from the United States.
