The Foundation for Defense of Democracies has released a report suggesting that the United States can simultaneously arm Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel without depleting its own military arsenal, at least for the current moment. The report indicates that this capability could be at risk without significant reform and new investments in the U.S. defense industry.
The 89-page report, titled “Arsenal of Democracy: Arming Taiwan, Ukraine, and Israel While Strengthening the U.S. Industrial Base,” was authored by Ryan Brobst and Bradley Bowman. It presents a detailed inventory of U.S. weapon distribution and delivery timelines. The study found no significant delays in weapons deliveries to Taiwan and Israel due to U.S. support for Ukraine, which the authors regarded as positive news.
Brobst and Bowman urge that the perspective on U.S. weapons stockpiles should be dynamic, likening them to a muscle that requires continuous exercise and input to maintain strength. They noted that increased demand for specific weapons, such as the HIMARS rocket launcher, has prompted Lockheed Martin to double its production to meet the needs of allies like Ukraine and Taiwan.
However, the defense industry faces challenges in ramping up production of other weapons, such as the FIM-92 Stinger missile system, which has been out of production for decades and will not see high-rate production until at least next year. Additionally, the low annual production rate of the Joint Standoff Weapon means Taiwan’s orders may not be fulfilled until 2027.
The report evaluates the supply chain for various weapons, categorizing seven as “strong,” 14 as “requiring attention,” and four as “weak.” The authors warn that without reforms and substantial investments, the defense industrial base might not sustain the U.S. role as the “arsenal of democracy.” They highlight that defense spending has not kept pace with needs, pointing to near post-World War II lows in budget allocation relative to GDP.
Brobst and Bowman recommend several strategies, including enhancing Presidential draw-down authority for weapons to Taiwan, collaborating with allies to expand production, increasing defense spending, and streamlining foreign military sales processes.
Amid these discussions, concerns arise regarding U.S. support for Ukraine, especially with fears that reductions in arms could impact Ukraine’s negotiating power in potential ceasefire talks with Russia. Ukrainian officials have expressed anxiety about a possible decrease in air-defense support from the U.S., particularly with ongoing Russian attacks.
General Chris Cavoli, the U.S. European Command leader, confirmed the critical role of U.S. air defense supplies for Ukraine, stating, “We’re basically the sole provider.” The report contrasts with opinions advocating for reduced support to Ukraine in favor of increasing arms to Taiwan. With rising tensions, intelligence sources suggest a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan could occur in the coming months, which could also heighten Russian aggression in Eastern Europe, as assessed by Cavoli during Senate testimony.
Overall, while the current capacity exists for the U.S. to support multiple allies simultaneously, the long-term viability of this strategy hinges on the strengthening of the defense industrial base and careful management of U.S. military resources.
