The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian government, a longstanding ally of Moscow, has significantly undermined Russia’s image as a global power and revealed the limitations of its military reach. Russia intervened in the Syrian civil war in 2015 to support Assad, but with its military focus now on Ukraine, its capacity to protect Assad has diminished.
In late November, rebel forces launched a swift offensive that led to the fall of the regime in less than two weeks, forcing Assad to flee. Reports from Russian news agencies indicate that Assad has sought asylum in Moscow. With this political upheaval, it remains uncertain whether Russia can retain control over its strategic military assets, particularly its naval base in Tartus and its airbase in Hmeimim.
Analyst Ruslan Pukhov, writing for the Russian daily Kommersant, pointed out that Russia lacks the military forces and resources to effectively engage outside the former Soviet Union. He emphasized that the strain from the ongoing offensive in Ukraine has further depleted Russia’s military capabilities. Following the start of the rebels’ offensive, Russia responded with limited airstrikes to aid the Syrian army in three northern provinces.
Political analysts, including Fyodor Lukyanov, noted that the Kremlin’s surprise at the speed of the rebel advance reflects a broader shift in priorities, as Russia now has to negotiate with the same rebel groups it had formerly targeted. Russian spy chief Sergei Naryshkin acknowledged that securing the safety of Russian citizens and embassy staff has become a primary objective.
Lukyanov also highlighted the likelihood of Russia having to abandon its military bases in Syria, which serve crucial purposes in projecting power in the Mediterranean and Middle East, influencing regions such as Libya and Sudan. The loss of these bases would significantly impair Moscow’s strategic capabilities.
Reactions from military commentators in Moscow have been grim. Russian war correspondent Alexander Kots expressed indifference towards Syria’s plight, paralleling it with other Ukrainian locations from which Russian forces have retreated. He asserted that the outcome of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine holds greater importance for Russia’s global standing.
Furthermore, the fall of Assad, a key ally of President Vladimir Putin, might weaken Russia’s negotiating power in future discussions regarding the Ukraine conflict. Experts from the Soufan Center have highlighted that Moscow’s difficulties in maintaining Assad’s regime underscore its preoccupation with the Ukraine situation, which potentially questions the sustainability of its military efforts in Ukraine.
