Russia’s offensive around Ukraine’s Kharkiv aims at presenting Kyiv with a strategic quandary over where to deploy its forces, rather than taking the major city. Moscow’s troops are firing on around 30 villages in the northeast region and have occupied tens of square kilometers in just a few days.
Analysts do not believe Russia’s immediate aim is taking Kharkiv, given the insufficient size of the Russian force. Over the two years of invasion, Russia has focused on attrition of men and materiel on the battlefield and shaping public opinion among Kyiv’s allies. Russia still holds a numerical advantage, supported by $61 billion in aid passed in April.
Russia aims to create a “buffer zone” to protect its border region of Belgorod, which faces regular bombardments. The Kharkiv region’s location on the border allows Russia to mobilize air support, drones, and artillery from within their territory, giving them shorter supply lines and air superiority. Ukraine faces a strategic dilemma of defending the front line while preserving strategic sites and forces as much as possible.
The Ukrainians face a military and political issue of deciding whether to hold ground at all costs or preserve their increasingly smaller army. It may not be immediately clear if Russia can pull off a major push in the northeast, and any strategic impact will take longer to manifest. Vladimir Putin aims to change minds further away from the fighting and among Kyiv’s Western allies, with attention on the upcoming American presidential election and the possible return of Donald Trump, who may not prioritize Ukraine aid.
